Photo courtesy of NBA via Wikipedia.
At the time of writing this, the Indiana Pacers are up 3-2 against the New York Knicks. As such, this article will feature hypothetical predictions for how both teams in the Eastern Conference Finals would match up against the Oklahoma City Thunder.
The Oklahoma City Thunder vs. the Indiana Pacers:
This is the matchup I believe is more likely. The Pacers look like they could give the Thunder a run for their money. So far in the playoffs, the Thunder have relied on monster scoring performances from Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren. They’ve won games off the backs of poor shooting nights from their opponents and have shown flashes of being able to outgun other teams offensively.
The Thunder have also shown their ability to adapt their defensive scheme mid-series to great effect. The best example of this was the Thunder assigning Alex Caruso to guard Nikola Jokic in Game 7 against the Denver Nuggets. Despite this being a defensive mismatch on paper, Caruso’s pesky defense ended up being the key to the Thunder closing that series out with a win.
However, the Pacers don’t really falter if one player underperforms. The team only really struggles if they have a down shooting night, such as their Game 5 against the New York Knicks. That Game 5 was the first time in this year's playoffs that the Pacers failed to put up over 100 points in a game.
I find it hard to fathom that they’ll continue to have shooting woes, especially across a seven game series. What’s more likely is that the Pacers will continue to move the ball around efficiently on offense and find ways to slow the Thunder down on defense. The Pacers have already upset the Cleveland Cavaliers — the top-seeded team in the Eastern Conference. I think they pull off the upset here as well — winning the NBA Finals in six games.
The Oklahoma City Thunder vs. the New York Knicks:
As previously mentioned, it would take two more horrendous shooting nights out of the Pacers — plus Jalen Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns continuing to dominate on offense — for the Knicks to make the NBA Finals.
If they can pull it off, they’ll enter the NBA Finals against the Thunder with confidence and momentum. I think it will take more than that to knock off the Thunder though. Beyond needing their stars to continue their offensive output, they’ll also need to step up on defense while avoiding fouling — which, if you’ve watched any games the Thunder play, is easier said than done.
The narrative that Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is constantly foul-baiting does hold some water — after all, he is fourth this postseason in average free throws attempted, with 9.2. However, sitting two spots down at sixth on the list is Jalen Brunson, with 8.2. Both the Knicks and the Thunder benefit from drawing fouls and making free throws to expand their leads. Both teams will need to adapt how they play defense so their stars don’t foul out early in games.
I have the sinking feeling that a series between these two teams will be incredibly slow and come down to free throws made. Even if it doesn’t come down to free throws, I think the Thunder have the edge on the Knicks, both offensively and defensively. Barring an upset, I see the Thunder winning this series in five.
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